Global renewables to double by 2030, says IEA
Global renewable power capacity is set to more than double by 2030, led by rapid growth in solar PV, according to the International Energy Agency’s Renewables 2025 report.
The IEA’s latest medium-term outlook forecasts an additional 4600GW of renewable capacity by the end of the decade — equivalent to the combined generation capacity of China, the European Union and Japan.
Solar PV will account for about 80% of that expansion, driven by declining costs and faster permitting, followed by wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol said: “The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too. Solar PV is on course to account for some 80% of the increase in the world’s renewable capacity over the next five years.”
He added that renewables’ expansion is taking place amid supply chain constraints, grid integration challenges, financial pressures and policy changes, with solar set to surge in markets such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Southeast Asia.
The report said growth in emerging economies across Asia, the Middle East and Africa is accelerating due to cost competitiveness and stronger policy support. India is on track to become the world’s second-largest renewables growth market after China and is expected to reach its 2030 target comfortably.
At the company level, developers have largely maintained or raised their 2030 deployment goals, signalling confidence in long-term growth. Offshore wind remains an exception, with forecasts around 25% lower than last year’s due to policy shifts, supply chain bottlenecks and cost pressures.
The IEA noted that renewables’ overall growth outlook has been revised slightly downward from last year, reflecting policy changes in the United States and China. Early phase-out of federal tax incentives and regulatory shifts in the US have reduced expected capacity growth by almost 50% compared with the previous forecast, while China’s move from fixed tariffs to auction-based pricing has also constrained expansion.
These downward adjustments are partly offset by stronger momentum in India, Europe and other emerging economies where ambitious policies, expanded auction programmes and faster permitting are boosting deployment. Corporate power purchase agreements, utility contracts and merchant plants are expected to account for 30% of global capacity additions to 2030 — double their share from last year’s report.
Solar PV remains the lowest-cost generation option in most countries, with wind power expected to regain pace as supply bottlenecks ease in China, Europe and India. Hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal will continue to play key roles in grid stability and flexibility.
The IEA warned that global supply chains for solar PV and rare earth elements used in wind turbines remain heavily concentrated in China, where more than 90% of production is expected to remain through 2030.
It also cautioned that rapid growth of variable renewables is putting increasing pressure on electricity systems, with curtailment and negative price events emerging in more markets. The agency said investment in grids, storage and flexible capacity is urgently needed to ensure secure integration of renewable power.
The report further projects modest gains for renewables in transport and heating, with their share of energy use in transport rising from 4% to 6% by 2030 and in heat generation from 14% to 18%. Growth will be driven by renewable electricity for electric vehicles in China and Europe, and biofuels in Brazil, Indonesia and India.
